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Technical analysis basics: price, volume and trend

The three facts a chart shows: where price is, how much trading is behind it, and whether it has a direction.

In one line

Technical analysis is not a tool for predicting the future. It reads where market participants agree right now.

Article

Technical analysis uses only two facts: price and volume. Financial statements tell you what a company is worth. The chart shows what the market is willing to pay for it right now.

Price: where is it

Position matters more than the price level itself. Look at how far it is from the 52-week high, whether it is above or below the moving averages, and whether it has cleared the recent high. A 10% rise off the bottom and a 10% rise near the top mean different things.

Volume: how many agreed

Volume is the number of people who agreed on that price. A rise on thin volume is a minority opinion. A rise on heavy volume is a majority agreement. Trust a breakout only when volume rises with it. When volume shrinks during a decline, there are fewer sellers left. When it grows, that is capitulation.

Trend: does it have a direction

Higher highs and higher lows make an uptrend. Lower highs and lower lows make a downtrend. Anything else is a range. The end of a trend is harder to spot than its start. That is why trend-following strategies accept getting on late after the trend is confirmed and getting off late after it turns.

Indicators summarize price

Moving averages, MACD, RSI and the rest all summarize price and volume in different ways. More indicators do not mean more information. You are looking at the same thing several times. What each indicator means is in the glossary. How this tool looks at stretches where several indicators overlap is on the methodology page.

Operator's assessment

The confluence score adds up nine technical indicators only and leaves regime out. If regime (the larger stage of the trend) were part of the score, you would get contradictions like "downtrend regime, yet 55 points". Regime is checked first, as a gate rather than a score. The score only handles timing inside it.

What this article does not cover

This article does not cover when to buy or sell any stock. Indicator values have to be read together with regime and volume, and no conclusion rests on a single value. Everything here is reference information based on past, public data and is not investment advice.

Related

Livermore's trend breakout · Minervini's trend template

Basics and trading strategies

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Confluence Zone is an analysis tool for information and research; it is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a trading instruction. Investment decisions and their outcomes are your own responsibility.
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