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TQQQ basket method: what do the backtest results show?

The basket method calculated with actual prices since 2011, with results for different slot counts and targets per slot.

Confluence Zone operator · Data as of September 30, 2026 · Calculated October 1, 2026 · Recomputed monthly

Summary

Running the basket method with 240 slots of $500 each from October 2011 put in $36,826 and ended at $2,922,504. The largest drawdown along the way was −70.9%.

All 240 slots were filled by July 2015, and by the rules no more money went in after that. Simply holding TQQQ while adding $500 every month to the end finished at $6,574,865 (money put in: $103,826). The basket stops adding money once it is full, so it put in less: $36,826.

Results by number of slots and target per slot

Case	Put in	End balance	Return	Annual return	Max drawdown	Fully filled
240 slots, $500 per slotOct 2011 to Sep 2026	$36,826	$2,922,504	+7,836.1%	38.3%	−70.9%	Jul 2015
120 slots, $500 per slotOct 2011 to Sep 2026	$29,913	$1,107,411	+3,602.1%	32.8%	−59.8%	Jul 2015
240 slots, $1,000 per slotOct 2011 to Sep 2026	$50,326	$3,277,593	+6,412.8%	38.7%	−67.4%	Oct 2017
120 slots, $1,000 per slotOct 2011 to Sep 2026	$43,413	$1,482,478	+3,314.8%	34.6%	−55.4%	Oct 2017

On the first day, one share goes into each slot, and $500 a month fills the slots from the front. Calculated with actual prices before stock splits.

Simply holding instead, adding $500 a month to the end (240-slot case)

Case	Put in	End balance	Return	Annual return	Max drawdown	Fully filled
Hold TQQQOct 2011 to Sep 2026	$103,826	$6,574,865	+6,232.6%	44.9%	−81.8%	—
Hold QQQOct 2011 to Sep 2026	$103,826	$637,519	+514.0%	19.3%	−35.6%	—
Hold QLDOct 2011 to Sep 2026	$103,826	$2,616,474	+2,420.1%	34.5%	−63.8%	—

The basket stops adding money once it is full, so its money put in is lower than in the other rows.

How it was calculated

On the first day, one share went into each slot. After that, $500 went in on the first trading day of each month to fill the slots from the front. No more money went in once all slots were full. Simply holding started with the same amount and added $500 a month to the end.
Each buy or sell was charged 0.15% as a cost. Taxes, currency conversion costs and interest on cash are not included.
The basket fills slots with whole shares at actual prices, so it uses prices adjusted for splits only, without dividends. Over the same period, reinvested TQQQ dividends added about 5.4% to simply holding.
Annual return (IRR) is the average yearly return that accounts for when each deposit went in. Max loss vs. money in is the largest gap by which the balance fell below the total put in up to that day.
The as-of date is the last trading day of last month (September 30, 2026). The numbers are recomputed at the start of each month.
Buy and sell decisions use the close, and trades fill at the next trading day's open. See the backtest spec

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Common questions

Is this the original author's actual performance?

No. The published rules were turned into numbers and calculated on this site. The rules are in the basket method article in the wiki.

How long did it take to fill?

With 240 slots of $500, it started in October 2011 and was full by July 2015.

Are dividends included?

Not in this basket calculation. The rule fills slots with whole shares at actual prices, and dividend-adjusted prices would change the price of one share. Over the same period, reinvesting TQQQ dividends added about 5.4% to simply holding.

Would the result be the same when investing in a currency other than dollars?

No. This TQQQ basket calculation is in US dollars. Exchange rate changes and the fee and tax differences of locally listed ETFs are not included.