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The same money put into QLD month by month or all on the first day, compared across every five-year and ten-year window since its 2006 launch.
With the same money ($60,000) going into QLD over 10 years from October 2016, putting it all in on the first day ended at $1,077,785, and spreading it over the months ended at $336,389.
Of 124 ten-year windows since 2006, all at once ended higher in 97%. Over 184 five-year windows the figure was 85%. For QQQ over the same windows it was 100% and 95%.
Losses along the way were larger all at once. Across five-year windows, the largest max loss vs. money in was −83.0% all at once (starting November 2007) and −73.2% for monthly investing (starting December 2006).
| Case | Put in | End balance | Return | Annual return (IRR) | Max drawdown | Max loss vs. money in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years, monthlyOct 2021 to Sep 2026 | $30,000 | $76,333 | +154.4% | 38.5% | −63.8% | −44.5% |
| 5 years, all at onceOct 2021 to Sep 2026 | $30,000 | $79,280 | +164.3% | 21.5% | −63.7% | −54.2% |
| 10 years, monthlyOct 2016 to Sep 2026 | $60,000 | $336,389 | +460.6% | 32.4% | −63.7% | −9.2% |
| 10 years, all at onceOct 2016 to Sep 2026 | $60,000 | $1,077,785 | +1,696.3% | 33.5% | −63.7% | −8.4% |
| 15 years, monthlyOct 2011 to Sep 2026 | $90,000 | $1,466,136 | +1,529.0% | 32.7% | −63.7% | −5.7% |
| 15 years, all at onceOct 2011 to Sep 2026 | $90,000 | $7,849,093 | +8,621.2% | 34.7% | −63.7% | −3.6% |
The annual return is based on how long the money was in the market, so its order can differ from the order of end balances.
| 5-year windows | 10-year windows | |
|---|---|---|
| Windows | 184 | 124 |
| QLD: share where all at once ended higher | 85% | 97% |
| QQQ, same windows: share where all at once ended higher | 95% | 100% |
| Median gap in end balance (all at once ÷ monthly − 1) | +78.3% | +183.1% |
| Start where monthly was furthest aheadgap in end balance | Nov 2007 (−47.6%) | Nov 2007 (−16.9%) |
| Max loss vs. money in, worst window (monthly) | −73.2% | −73.2% |
| Max loss vs. money in, worst window (all at once) | −83.0% | −83.0% |
You can change the ticker, period and monthly amount and calculate the same way. No sign-in needed.
Mostly not in this calculation. All at once ended higher in 97% of ten-year windows. Monthly investing came out ahead mostly in ten-year windows that started in 2007 and 2008, just before a large decline. The loss vs. money in along the way was smaller for monthly investing.
Across five-year windows, the largest max loss vs. money in was −83.0% all at once (starting November 2007) and −73.2% for monthly investing (starting December 2006). Ten-year windows gave the same values from the same start months.
In this QLD calculation, the returns stay almost the same and only the amounts scale. Only the basket method, which buys whole shares, differs a little.
Yes. This QLD calculation reinvests each dividend at the price on its ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.
No. This QLD calculation is in US dollars. Exchange rate changes and the fee and tax differences of locally listed ETFs are not included.
These results are calculated from past prices. They do not guarantee future returns and do not recommend any product.
