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Trend · Momentum

Trend Template Strategy

Mark Minervini · Mark Minervini · 1965– · United States
Only Stage 2 stocks, bought on the breakout after volatility shrinks

What is the Trend Template Strategy?

The Trend Template Strategy considers only stocks that meet all eight trend conditions, such as moving averages in order and distance from the 52-week low. It turns the Trend Template published by Mark Minervini into rules.

Who He Is

He left school and taught himself to trade. He won the 1997 US Investing Championship with a 155% return and became known after appearing in Jack Schwager's Stock Market Wizards (2001).

Building on O'Neil's research, he developed his own method, SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis), whose entry conditions are the eight Trend Template criteria. A stock that meets most of the conditions is not a candidate for him. It has to meet all of them.

He wrote Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (2013), Think & Trade Like a Champion (2017) and Mindset Secrets for Winning (2019), and runs courses and workshops for individual traders.

The Four Stages of a Stock

He sees stocks moving through four stages: Stage 1 basing, Stage 2 advancing, Stage 3 topping and Stage 4 declining. Minervini buys only in Stage 2.

Buy in Stage 1 and you may wait for years; Stage 3 can look like new highs just before it breaks down; buying in Stage 4 is catching a falling stock. The Trend Template is a set of conditions for checking whether a stock is in Stage 2.

Buy only in Stage 2, when the uptrend is established.Stage 1 baseStage 2 rise ← only hereStage 3 topStage 4 decline
Buy only in Stage 2, when the uptrend is established.

The Eight Trend Template Criteria

Is the price above its moving averages?

Price above the 50-day, the 50-day above the 150-day, and the 150-day above the 200-day. If any is out of order, it is not Stage 2.

Is the 200-day average rising?

The 200-day average should have been rising for at least a month. If the line is flat or falling, the trend is not established yet, even if the price is above it.

Well off the low, and not far from the high?

At least 30% above the 52-week low and within 25% of the 52-week high.

Stronger than the market?

Only stocks with high relative strength, rising more than the index on the way up and falling less on the way down.

VCP, the Moment to Buy

Passing the template is not enough to buy at any time. He waits for pullbacks that get smaller each time, the volatility contraction pattern (VCP), for example pullbacks of 25%, then 15%, 8% and 3%. Near the end of the contraction volume dries up, and he buys when price breaks resistance on a jump in volume.

Pullbacks get smaller until price breaks out on volume, which is the buy point.−25%−15%−8%−3%Breakout entryShallower dips = sellers exhausted → volume dries up in last contraction
Pullbacks get smaller until price breaks out on volume, which is the buy point.

Managing Losses

Minervini sets the stop before buying, usually 5 to 8% below the purchase price, and buys only when the expected gain is at least twice the expected loss. That is how an account can grow even when more than half of the trades are wrong.

Cautions

Relaxing the conditions defeats the purposeThinking six out of eight is good enough is the most common mistake. The method works when all the conditions are met together.
Stage 2 stocks are rarer than you thinkWhen the whole market is weak, almost nothing passes. Then he waits in cash instead of lowering the bar.

How This App Scores It

This strategy card checks the Trend Template as written.
  • Price above the 50-day, 150-day and 200-day averages, with 50-day > 150-day > 200-day (5 items)
  • Whether the 200-day average is higher than a month ago
  • At least 30% above the 52-week low and within 25% of the high
  • Relative strength, and whether volatility in the last 20 bars shrank versus the 40 before (VCP)

Primary Sources

  • Mark Minervini, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (2013)

This strategy model was independently built by Confluence Zone to quantify the investment philosophy in the works above. It is not an official model created, endorsed or reviewed by Mark Minervini or any related institution. Last reviewed: 2026-09-29

Related terms: Moving Average · Trading Volume

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These explainers are educational summaries, independently written from publicly available books, records and interviews. No person or institution named here is evaluating or recommending any security. Confluence Zone is an analysis tool for information and research; it is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a trading instruction. Investment decisions and their outcomes are your own responsibility.
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