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Grid trading on QQQ and TQQQ: did it beat simply holding?

QQQ and TQQQ traded with a 5% grid, compared with holding the same money. Every three-year window is counted too.

Confluence Zone operator · Data as of September 30, 2026 · Calculated October 1, 2026 · Recomputed monthly

Summary

Trading QQQ with a 5% grid for 10 years from October 2016 turned $10,000 into $13,108, an annual return of 2.7%. Simply holding the same money ended at $66,661, or 20.9% a year.

The grid sells a slot on every rise, so its average stock share over these 10 years was 10%. For TQQQ over the same 10 years, the grid ended at $46,716 and buy and hold at $307,012.

Shifting a three-year window one month at a time, the grid ended higher in 21% of QQQ windows and 10% of TQQQ windows. The windows where the grid came out ahead started most often in 2000, 2001, 2006 and 2007 for QQQ; 2020, 2021 and 2022 for TQQQ.

Grid (5% apart, 20 slots) vs. buy and hold, $10,000 at the start

Case	End balance	Annual return	Max drawdown	Fills	Avg. stock share
QQQ full period, gridJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$18,108	2.2%	−56.0%	524	37%
QQQ full period, buy and holdJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$91,226	8.6%	−83.0%	2	100%
QQQ 10 years, gridOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$13,108	2.7%	−7.1%	222	10%
QQQ 10 years, buy and holdOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$66,661	20.9%	−35.1%	2	100%
QQQ 5 years, gridOct 2021 to Sep 2026	$11,455	2.8%	−6.5%	114	12%
QQQ 5 years, buy and holdOct 2021 to Sep 2026	$21,192	16.2%	−35.1%	2	100%
TQQQ full period, gridMar 2010 to Sep 2026	$113,870	15.8%	−56.0%	1,912	23%
TQQQ full period, buy and holdMar 2010 to Sep 2026	$3,482,476	42.3%	−81.7%	2	100%
TQQQ 10 years, gridOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$46,716	16.7%	−55.9%	1,220	27%
TQQQ 10 years, buy and holdOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$307,012	40.9%	−81.7%	2	100%
TQQQ 5 years, gridOct 2021 to Sep 2026	$18,964	13.7%	−55.4%	540	37%
TQQQ 5 years, buy and holdOct 2021 to Sep 2026	$26,123	21.2%	−81.7%	2	100%

Every three-year window

	QQQ	TQQQ
Three-year windows	295	164
Share where the grid ended higher	21%	10%
Median gap in annual return (grid − hold)	−12.9 pp	−30.5 pp
Start where the grid was furthest ahead	Apr 2000 (+21.1 pp)	Nov 2021 (+12.4 pp)
Start where the grid was furthest behind	Jan 2019 (−35.3 pp)	Jan 2019 (−88.3 pp)

Last 10 years: the grid vs. simply keeping its average stock share

Case	End balance	Annual return	Max drawdown	Fills	Avg. stock share
QQQ gridOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$13,108	2.7%	−7.1%	222	10%
QQQ fixed 10% stocksOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$12,356	2.1%	−4.0%	121	10%
TQQQ gridOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$46,716	16.7%	−55.9%	1,220	27%
TQQQ fixed 27% stocksOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$37,088	14.0%	−31.7%	121	28%

The fixed share is reset at the first trading day of each month. No row earns interest on cash.

How it was calculated

$10,000 went in once at the start, with nothing added later. Buy and hold bought with the same money on the same day and held to the end.
Grid: price lines 5% apart start from the first day's open (each line up is 1.05 times the one below). One slot is bought on the first day and another each time the price falls through a line below. Each slot is sold at the next line up. A slot is one twentieth of the account when bought, and at most 20 slots are held at once, which lets the grid keep buying down to about −60% from the first slot.
Each buy or sell was charged 0.15% as a cost. Taxes, currency conversion costs and interest on cash are not included.
Dividends were reinvested at the price on each ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.
Annual return is the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the end balance over the starting money. Average stock share is the daily share of the account held in stocks, averaged over the period.
The as-of date is the last trading day of last month (September 30, 2026). The numbers are recomputed at the start of each month.
Orders filled at the price line or target when the price reached it. Within a daily bar, the low was assumed to come before the high on up days and the high before the low on down days. If the open had already passed the line, the fill was at the open. See the backtest spec

Try it yourself

This rule is not in the backtest tool yet. The buy-and-hold comparison can be calculated there with the same settings.

Calculate with these settings

Common questions

Does the grid do better if cash earns interest?

Somewhat. This calculation leaves cash at 0% interest, and the grid held about 90% cash on average. The 3-month Treasury bill averaged 2.4% a year over the same 10 years, so interest would add roughly 2.2 points a year. That does not close the gap to buy and hold.

Did the grid run out of slots?

Over the full period, every slot was full or cash was short on 7% of trading days for TQQQ and 31% for QQQ. On those days it bought nothing more, however far the price fell.

Was it the grid trading itself or just the low stock share?

Mostly the low share. Over the last 10 years, keeping QQQ at the grid's average share of 10% (reset monthly) returned 2.1% a year, against 2.7% for the grid and 20.9% for buy and hold. On TQQQ the same comparison was 14.0% fixed, 16.7% grid.

Are dividends included?

Yes. This grid calculation reinvests each dividend at the price on its ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.

Would the result be the same when investing in a currency other than dollars?

No. This grid calculation is in US dollars. Exchange rate changes and the fee and tax differences of locally listed ETFs are not included.