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Monthly investing in QQQ and SPY with a rule to hold cash below the 200-day line, compared with plain monthly investing.
The drawdown got smaller. Putting money into QQQ every month for 20 years from October 2006 had a max drawdown of −53.5%. With a rule of selling below the 200-day moving average and buying back above it, it was −25.1%.
In exchange, the end balance was $585,852, less than plain monthly investing ($1,063,801), and there were 115 trades over 20 years. In none of the 6 cases calculated did the rule end higher.
| Case | Put in | End balance | Return | Annual return (IRR) | Max drawdown | Max loss vs. money in | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ 10 years, plain monthlyOct 2016 to Sep 2026 | $60,000 | $180,486 | +200.8% | 20.9% | −35.1% | −3.7% | — |
| QQQ 10 years, 200-day ruleOct 2016 to Sep 2026 | $60,000 | $158,890 | +164.8% | 18.5% | −23.5% | −3.9% | 35 |
| QQQ 15 years, plain monthlyOct 2011 to Sep 2026 | $90,000 | $478,412 | +431.6% | 20.0% | −35.1% | −2.5% | — |
| QQQ 15 years, 200-day ruleOct 2011 to Sep 2026 | $90,000 | $339,610 | +277.3% | 16.1% | −25.1% | −7.9% | 73 |
| QQQ 20 years, plain monthlyOct 2006 to Sep 2026 | $120,000 | $1,063,801 | +786.5% | 18.8% | −53.5% | −43.3% | — |
| QQQ 20 years, 200-day ruleOct 2006 to Sep 2026 | $120,000 | $585,852 | +388.2% | 14.0% | −25.1% | −7.8% | 115 |
| SPY 10 years, plain monthlyOct 2016 to Sep 2026 | $60,000 | $136,164 | +126.9% | 15.7% | −33.7% | −12.8% | — |
| SPY 10 years, 200-day ruleOct 2016 to Sep 2026 | $60,000 | $100,897 | +68.2% | 10.0% | −24.3% | −5.7% | 59 |
| SPY 15 years, plain monthlyOct 2011 to Sep 2026 | $90,000 | $302,087 | +235.7% | 14.8% | −33.7% | −2.4% | — |
| SPY 15 years, 200-day ruleOct 2011 to Sep 2026 | $90,000 | $187,540 | +108.4% | 9.2% | −24.3% | −4.8% | 91 |
| SPY 20 years, plain monthlyOct 2006 to Sep 2026 | $120,000 | $566,043 | +371.7% | 13.7% | −55.3% | −44.8% | — |
| SPY 20 years, 200-day ruleOct 2006 to Sep 2026 | $120,000 | $305,828 | +154.9% | 8.6% | −24.3% | −8.1% | 125 |
Rule: when the close is below the 200-day moving average, sell everything the next day. When it comes back above, buy again the next day. Money put in while in cash is held and invested at the next buy.
You can change the ticker, period and monthly amount and calculate the same way. No sign-in needed.
115 times over 20 years for QQQ. Trades cluster in periods when the price moves back and forth around the 200-day line.
6 of the 6 cases calculated.
It is the simplest version of it. Korean investors often apply a 200-day line rule to TQQQ with extra conditions. This calculation only looks at the 200-day line of QQQ and SPY themselves.
In this QQQ calculation, the returns stay almost the same and only the amounts scale. Only the basket method, which buys whole shares, differs a little.
Yes. This QQQ calculation reinvests each dividend at the price on its ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.
No. This QQQ calculation is in US dollars. Exchange rate changes and the fee and tax differences of locally listed ETFs are not included.
These results are calculated from past prices. They do not guarantee future returns and do not recommend any product.
