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Buying the golden cross (50-day above 200-day) and selling the death cross: did it beat holding?

50/200-day and 20/60-day moving-average cross rules on QQQ and SPY since 2000, compared with buy and hold and split by decade.

Confluence Zone operator · Data as of September 30, 2026 · Calculated October 1, 2026 · Recomputed monthly

Summary

Applying the 50/200-day cross rule to QQQ from January 2000 turned $10,000 into $170,953, or 11.2% a year. Buy and hold ended at $91,226, or 8.6% a year. The max drawdown was 36.5% for the rule and 83.0% for holding.

On SPY the rule returned 7.9% a year against 8.2% for buy and hold. The rule held stocks for 73% of the period on QQQ and 72% on SPY.

By decade, the gap was largest in 2000 to 2009: QQQ returned 5.0% a year under the rule and −6.9% held. In 2010 to 2019 and 2020 onward, the rule trailed holding.

Moving-average cross rules vs. buy and hold, $10,000 at the start

Case	End balance	Annual return	Max drawdown	Fills	Avg. stock share
QQQ, 50/200-day crossJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$170,953	11.2%	−36.5%	36	73%
QQQ, 20/60-day crossJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$30,920	4.3%	−41.6%	124	66%
QQQ, buy and holdJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$91,226	8.6%	−83.0%	2	100%
SPY, 50/200-day crossJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$75,795	7.9%	−33.7%	26	72%
SPY, 20/60-day crossJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$34,723	4.8%	−36.7%	124	67%
SPY, buy and holdJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$82,053	8.2%	−55.2%	2	100%

50/200-day cross, one run split by decade

Period	Rule, annual return	Hold, annual return	Rule, max drawdown	Hold, max drawdown
QQQ 2000 to 2009Jan 2000 to Dec 2009	5.0%	−6.9%	−36.5%	−83.0%
QQQ 2010 to 2019Jan 2010 to Dec 2019	12.1%	17.9%	−22.0%	−22.8%
QQQ 2020 onwardJan 2020 to Sep 2026	19.8%	21.0%	−28.6%	−35.1%
SPY 2000 to 2009Jan 2000 to Dec 2009	6.5%	−1.1%	−12.9%	−55.2%
SPY 2010 to 2019Jan 2010 to Dec 2019	8.0%	13.4%	−18.9%	−19.4%
SPY 2020 onwardJan 2020 to Sep 2026	9.7%	15.2%	−33.7%	−33.7%

Each decade is a slice of the same run, so the rule carries its position across decade boundaries.

Month-end balance of the same $10,000 under the 50/200-day cross rule and under buy and hold, Jan 2000 to Sep 2026. Gray bands mark periods when the rule was in cash. In the last month the rule stood at $170,953 and buy and hold at $91,226.

How it was calculated

$10,000 went in once at the start, with nothing added later. Buy and hold bought with the same money on the same day and held to the end.
Golden cross: when the 50-day moving average closes above the 200-day, the whole account buys at the next trading day's open. When it closes below (death cross), everything is sold at the next open. If the 50-day was already above the 200-day on the first day, the rule bought at the next open. The 20/60 rows use the same rule with 20 and 60 days. Cash earns no interest.
Each buy or sell was charged 0.15% as a cost. Taxes, currency conversion costs and interest on cash are not included.
Dividends were reinvested at the price on each ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.
Annual return is the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the end balance over the starting money. Average stock share is the daily share of the account held in stocks, averaged over the period.
The as-of date is the last trading day of last month (September 30, 2026). The numbers are recomputed at the start of each month.
Buy and sell decisions use the close, and trades fill at the next trading day's open. See the backtest spec

Try it yourself

The custom moving-average cross rule in the backtest tool runs the same calculation. It waits for the next cross even when the short line is already above at the start, so the first months can differ from this page.

Calculate with these settings

Common questions

How many trades were whipsaws?

On QQQ the 50/200 rule made 18 round trips. 2 of them were sold within about a month (21 trading days).

How often did a trade make money?

On QQQ, 67% of round trips ended above the buy price. The average winner gained 31.7%. The average loser lost 4.3%.

Is this the same as holding only above the 200-day line?

No. That rule compares the price with one line and trades more often. It has its own page in Questions and answers.

Are dividends included?

Yes. This golden cross calculation reinvests each dividend at the price on its ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.

Would the result be the same when investing in a currency other than dollars?

No. This golden cross calculation is in US dollars. Exchange rate changes and the fee and tax differences of locally listed ETFs are not included.