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Grid trading with lines 3%, 5% or 10% apart: which spacing did best?

How fills, costs paid and returns changed on QQQ and TQQQ when the grid spacing was 3%, 5% or 10%.

Confluence Zone operator · Data as of September 30, 2026 · Calculated October 1, 2026 · Recomputed monthly

Summary

Over the full QQQ period (Jan 2000 to Sep 2026), the annual return was 1.9% with lines 3% apart, 2.2% at 5% and 2.5% at 10%. The 10% spacing was the highest of the three.

Narrower spacing meant more fills. QQQ at 3% filled 1,180 times and paid $675 in costs; at 10% it was 168 fills and $307.

For TQQQ over its full period (Mar 2010 to Sep 2026), the 10% spacing was highest at 16.8% a year. Average stock share was 37% for QQQ and 22 to 24% for TQQQ.

Full period by spacing, $10,000 at the start

Case	End balance	Annual return	Max drawdown	Fills	Avg. stock share	Costs paid
QQQ 3% apart, 32 slotsJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$16,574	1.9%	−57.9%	1,180	37%	$675
QQQ 5% apart, 20 slotsJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$18,108	2.2%	−56.0%	524	37%	$500
QQQ 10% apart, 11 slotsJan 2000 to Sep 2026	$19,591	2.5%	−54.3%	168	37%	$307
TQQQ 3% apart, 32 slotsMar 2010 to Sep 2026	$92,034	14.3%	−56.8%	4,352	22%	$7,132
TQQQ 5% apart, 20 slotsMar 2010 to Sep 2026	$113,870	15.8%	−56.0%	1,912	23%	$5,825
TQQQ 10% apart, 11 slotsMar 2010 to Sep 2026	$131,326	16.8%	−54.3%	589	24%	$3,688

Last 10 years by spacing

Case	End balance	Annual return	Max drawdown	Fills	Avg. stock share	Costs paid
QQQ 3% apart, 32 slotsOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$12,852	2.5%	−6.9%	542	9%	$288
QQQ 5% apart, 20 slotsOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$13,108	2.7%	−7.1%	222	10%	$192
QQQ 10% apart, 11 slotsOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$14,112	3.5%	−7.4%	80	13%	$134
TQQQ 3% apart, 32 slotsOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$40,316	15.0%	−56.4%	2,719	27%	$2,608
TQQQ 5% apart, 20 slotsOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$46,716	16.7%	−55.9%	1,220	27%	$2,062
TQQQ 10% apart, 11 slotsOct 2016 to Sep 2026	$53,057	18.2%	−54.7%	385	28%	$1,301

QQQ, last 10 years: annual return by cost per trade

Spacing	0.15%	0.05%	0%
3% apart	2.5%	2.7%	2.8%
5% apart	2.7%	2.9%	2.9%
10% apart	3.5%	3.6%	3.6%

How it was calculated

$10,000 went in once at the start, with nothing added later. Buy and hold bought with the same money on the same day and held to the end.
Price lines start from the first day's open and sit 3%, 5% or 10% apart. Slot counts (32, 20, 11) let each grid keep buying down to about −60% from the first slot, and no more slots than that are held at once. A slot is the account divided by the slot count when bought. Each slot is sold one line up.
Each buy or sell was charged 0.15% as a cost. Taxes, currency conversion costs and interest on cash are not included.
Dividends were reinvested at the price on each ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.
Annual return is the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the end balance over the starting money. Average stock share is the daily share of the account held in stocks, averaged over the period.
The as-of date is the last trading day of last month (September 30, 2026). The numbers are recomputed at the start of each month.
Orders filled at the price line or target when the price reached it. Within a daily bar, the low was assumed to come before the high on up days and the high before the low on down days. If the open had already passed the line, the fill was at the open. See the backtest spec

Try it yourself

This rule is not in the backtest tool yet. The buy-and-hold comparison can be calculated there with the same settings.

Calculate with these settings

Common questions

Does narrow spacing win if trading costs are lower?

Over the last 10 years of QQQ, the 3% grid returned 2.5% a year at a 0.15% cost per trade, 2.7% at 0.05% and 2.8% at no cost. Even at no cost it trailed the 10% grid at a 0.15% cost (3.5%).

Which spacing fell the least?

Over the full QQQ period, the max drawdown was 57.9% at 3%, 56.0% at 5%, 54.3% at 10%.

Are dividends included?

Yes. This grid calculation reinvests each dividend at the price on its ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.

Would the result be the same when investing in a currency other than dollars?

No. This grid calculation is in US dollars. Exchange rate changes and the fee and tax differences of locally listed ETFs are not included.