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Leveraged ETF monthly investing: how much does the start date matter?

Five years of monthly investing in TQQQ, QLD and QQQ, recalculated many times with only the start month changed.

Confluence Zone operator · Data as of September 30, 2026 · Calculated October 1, 2026 · Recomputed monthly

Summary

Five years of putting $500 a month into TQQQ was calculated 140 times, moving the start one month at a time from March 2010. The annual return spread from −8.1% (start in January 2018) to 76.2% (start in September 2016).

Starting QQQ in the same months gave a range of 6.3% to 31.0%. At one point, TQQQ's balance was as much as 62% below the money put in.

5-year monthly investing with the start month varied (140 runs)

Ticker	Lowest annual return	Median	Highest annual return	Share below money in after 5 years	Largest loss vs. money in
TQQQ	−8.1%Jan 2018	41.0%	76.2%Sep 2016	1%	−62.4%Jul 2021
QLD	3.0%Jan 2018	29.6%	56.3%Sep 2016	0%	−45.7%Jul 2021
QQQ	6.3%Jan 2018	18.3%	31.0%Sep 2016	0%	−24.6%Aug 2021

5-year monthly investing started each January, annual return (IRR)

Start	TQQQ	QLD	QQQ
January 2011	49.1%	33.5%	17.5%
January 2012	38.5%	26.4%	14.1%
January 2013	54.6%	36.4%	18.9%
January 2014	24.1%	18.8%	11.5%
January 2015	47.4%	33.9%	19.1%
January 2016	68.0%	51.2%	29.0%
January 2017	73.2%	54.1%	29.8%
January 2018	−8.1%	3.0%	6.3%
January 2019	28.6%	26.4%	17.8%
January 2020	33.9%	28.4%	18.9%
January 2021	35.6%	29.4%	19.7%

How it was calculated

$500 went in on the first trading day of every month, including the first month.
Each buy or sell was charged 0.15% as a cost. Taxes, currency conversion costs and interest on cash are not included.
Dividends were reinvested at the price on each ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.
Annual return (IRR) is the average yearly return that accounts for when each deposit went in. Max loss vs. money in is the largest gap by which the balance fell below the total put in up to that day.
The as-of date is the last trading day of last month (September 30, 2026). The numbers are recomputed at the start of each month.
Buy and sell decisions use the close, and trades fill at the next trading day's open. See the backtest spec

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Common questions

When was the worst time to start monthly investing in TQQQ?

For 5-year runs, starting in January 2018. The annual return was −8.1%.

How often was the balance below the money put in after 5 years?

Of the 140 five-year runs, the balance ended below the money put in 1% of the time for TQQQ and 0% for QQQ. But how far the balance fell below the money put in along the way was much larger for TQQQ.

Would the results change with an amount other than $500 a month?

In this TQQQ, QLD and QQQ calculation, the returns stay almost the same and only the amounts scale. Only the basket method, which buys whole shares, differs a little.

Are dividends included?

Yes. This TQQQ, QLD and QQQ calculation reinvests each dividend at the price on its ex-dividend date. Taxes on dividends are not deducted.

Would the result be the same when investing in a currency other than dollars?

No. This TQQQ, QLD and QQQ calculation is in US dollars. Exchange rate changes and the fee and tax differences of locally listed ETFs are not included.